Economic Management in a State of War
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Countries with a non-convertible currency and a developing economy more and more often face low intensity and prolonged guerilla warfare which leads to a gradually worsening economic situation.
Measures number 2C, 4, 6A, 6B, 7, 9, 11A, 11B below are applicable to such a situation.
Another scenario is a crisis in balance of payments. The country then often seeks trade relief under GATT or WTO rules and multilateral financial aid packages (such as the IMF's CCF).
These measures are then applicable:
1B-1H, 2A, 2B, 2C, 2D, 2E, 3, 4, 5, 6A, 6B, 6C, 6D, 7, 8, 9, 11C, 11D, 11E, 11F.
The last and worst scenario is an unmitigated, all out, state of war.
These measures would then apply:
1A-1H, 2A, 2B, 2C, 2D, 2E, 3, 4, 5, 6A, 6B, 6C, 6D, 6E, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11C, 11D, 11E, 11F, 12, 13.
1. Foreign Exchange Regime and Capital
Controls
1A. The central bank can fix the exchange rate or establish a
currency board
1B. A ceiling or quota is often placed on foreign exchange
payments to non-residents
1C. Central bank approval is required for investments by
residents abroad
1D. Approval is required for payments under guarantees or non-trade
purposes
1E. Payments abroad can be effected from domestic
accounts only
1F. Domestic credit facilities to non-resident
firms, banks, brokers, etc. are disallowed
1G. Limitations are placed on cash and credit card travel allowances in
foreign exchange
1H. Transfers between external accounts require
approval of the central bank
2. Banking Regime
2A. Certain types of reserves of the banks with
the central bank – for lending to import businesses, for
instance - are increased
2B. Certain types of reserves of the banks with
the central bank - for lending to export businesses, for instance
– are decreased
2C. Reporting of transactions by the banks to the
central bank is tightened
2D. Deposit controls are introduced (including
a ceiling on interest payments, and a prohibition, or encouragement, as the case
may be, of
foreign exchange indexation of savings and obligations)
2E. Controls, ceilings, and quotas on withdrawals
in foreign exchange are introduced
3. Interest Rate Regime
Increases in Lombard and discount rates to offset speculation against the currency.
4. Export Revenues Regime
Reduce the period for repatriation of export proceeds.
5. Import Controls
Prohibition on import of luxury goods and non-commercial
vehicles.
Increase customs tariffs and duties on all imports (and introduce
countervailing measures under GATT/WTO rules).
6. Public Procurement Regime
6A. Ceiling budgeting (the imposition of
ceilings on item expenditures and micromanagement of the accounts
of the budget users)
6B. Positioning of Finance Ministry supervisors
and co-signatories in all budget users
6C. Freezing of public procurement of non-essentials
6D. Freezing of public procurement of essentials
6E. Expropriation of logistical war materiel (for
instance, cars)
7. Emergency Borrowing Facilities
IMF facilities under
an arrangement
World Bank - emergency borrowing
Bilateral – USA
Bilateral – EU
Bilateral – Others
Rescheduling of foreign debt (Paris Club, London Club)
Donor Conferences
8. War Bonds (linked to foreign exchange or nominal)
War effort bonds – voluntary (firms with
turnover above a certain amount are "encouraged" to
purchase the bonds through tax incentives)
Patriot Bonds – compulsory (firms with
turnover above a certain amounts are obligated to purchase the bonds and a percentage of
all wages is paid with these bonds, or a fixed quota of
bonds is purchased by each household according to the number of
members of the household)
Deductions from salaries are used to purchase the bonds
Financial transactions tax is imposed to finance
the war effort
Increases in VAT, excise, and other consumption
taxes are introduced in order to finance the war effort
9. Budgeting
War budget items can be part of the current
budget.
A separate, supplementary budget can cater to the
financial needs of the war.
A War Fund can be established – separately
managed and includes all the proceeds from war bonds, etc.
10. Emergency Regime
Freeze on wages
Freeze on hiring in public administration
Freeze on indexation of pensions and other state
obligations
Freeze on public expenditures and public
procurement
Freeze on interest payments
Freeze on repayment of internal debt
11. Strategic Reserves
11A. Decision on which goods are to be included
in the strategic reserves (oil, food)
11B. Decision on the quantities of goods to be
included in the strategic reserves
11C. Budgetary allocation for the purchase of the
goods in the strategic reserves and their warehousing
11D. Preparation of warehouses
11E. Hiring a trading firm (not through a public
tender)
11F. Discrete market purchases
12. Suspension of Laws
Suspension of tax reductions in existing laws
Suspension of Public Sector Reform
Suspension of liberalization of the foreign
exchange regime
13. Rationing and Subsidies
Rationing of essential goods (oil,
food)
Food subsidies to the needy
Fight against criminal and black market (war profiteering)
activities
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